基于喀斯特地层钻探风险实时预警模型的构建

The construction of real-time early warning model for drilling risk based on karst strata

摘要:

面对喀斯特地区钻探过程中各种不确定性，本文以粤西岩溶区域工程项目为例，依靠长短期记忆网络（LSTM）模型数据预测，搭建符合当地地质状况的钻探风险评判框架，实现了对钻探风险的动态跟踪以及精确预估。从实验数据可以看出，该模型对潜藏风险识别的准确率达到90%以上，在保障喀斯特地区钻探工作安全方面有着重要的应用价值，同时促进了钻探风险管理领域的技术革新，给复杂地质条件下工程安全防护提供可借鉴的技术途径。

Abstract:

Faced with various uncertainties existing in the drilling process of karst areas， this paper takes an engineering project in the karst of Western Guangdong as an example， relying on the long short-term memory （LSTM） model data prediction， and builds a drilling risk assessment framework in line with the local geological conditions， which can dynamically track and precisely predict drilling risks. It can be seen from the experimental data that the accuracy of hidden danger recognition of the model reaches more than 90%， which has important application value in ensuring the safety of drilling in karst areas， promoting the technological innovation in the field of drilling risk management， and providing a technical path for engineering safety protection under complex geological conditions.