长螺旋钻机成桩混合料堵管的模糊故障树分析

The fuzzy fault tree analysis of mix-material blocking pipe in pile-forming of long spiral drill

摘要:

在钻探工程施工过程中，不可避免地会出现机械故障。采用故障树分析其原因是常用的方法之一。但工程施工中，往往数据不足或不注意保存这些数据，实际应用时难以赋值，只能进行定性分析。针对工程施工机械出现故障的模糊性和不确定性，用模糊数描述底事件的发生概率，提出一种基于三角模糊数的工程施工机械故障树分析方法。该方法通过专家、现场技术人员及操作人员的经验构造三角模糊数描述各底事件发生的概率区间，通过计算三角模糊数的中位数重要度，按重要度大小对故障原因排序，作为制定预防措施的依据。最后将其应用于长螺旋钻机成桩混合料堵管的原因分析，按模糊重要度对故障有针对性地制定预防措施。结果表明：重要影响因素排序与现场技术人员及操作人员的定性分析与判断相符。

Abstract:

In the process of drilling engineering construction， the mechanical failure will inevitably appear. The fault tree is one of the common methods to analyze the causes. But in the construction， due to the insufficient data or no attention to save these data， assigning value is difficult in the actual application and only qualitative analysis can be made. In view of the fuzziness and uncertainty when faults of the engineering construction machinery happened， the occurrence probability of the bottom event is described with fuzzy number， and a machinery fault tree analysis method for engineering construction based on triangular fuzzy number is proposed. This method uses the experience of experts， field technicians and operators to describe the probability interval of each bottom event. The median importance of the triangular fuzzy number is caculated and is used to sort the causes of the fault， which is served as the basis for formulating preventive measures. Finally， it is applied to the reason analysis of mix-material blocking pipe of long spiral drill， and makes targeted preventive measures for faults according to the fuzzy importance. The results show that the ranking of important influencing factors is consistent with the qualitative analysis and judgment of the field technicians and operators.