一种提前预测孔内事故的新技术

New Technology for Downhole Trouble Forecast

摘要:

由于种种原因，在钻井过程中往往会出现一些意想不到的孔内事故，处理孔内事故通常需要浪费大量的时间和资金。介绍了一种能够提前精确预测孔内事故的新技术，该技术利用时间序列方法实时分析钻井过程中钻进参数的变化，依据钻进参数变化曲线来提前预测孔内事故发生。并给出了该技术的一个应用实例以及避免事故发生的补救措施。研究表明，该技术能够提前100~200 min可靠预测将要发生的孔内事故，大幅度降低经济损失，具有重大的经济价值和广泛的应用前景。

Abstract:

Some unforeseen downhole troubles often occur in the drilling course for various reasons， dealing with these troubles would waste a lot of time and cost much money. The paper introduces a new technology which can accurately forecast the downhole troubles ahead of time. Analysis was made on the variation of drilling parameters in drilling process by real time analysis with time series method, and according to the variation curves, the downhole troubles could be predicted. An application case and the remedial measures were elaborated. The study indicates that this new technology can reliably forecast downhole troubles 100~200 minutes ahead of time to greatly reduce the economic losses.