藏木水电站某标段边坡预应力锚固工程风险评价模型

Risk Assessment Model for Slope Pre-stressed Anchor Engineering in a Contract Section of Zangmu Hydropower Station

摘要:

藏木水电站某标段边坡预应力锚固工程施工中面临众多的风险，且存在多种不确定因素，项目管理难度大。构建了项目风险评价指标体系，使用三标度法和层次分析法对指标进行权重分析，引入了模糊综合评判模型，将管理者和专家的经验由定性转为定量，对项目风险进行了定量化评价，评价结论为“风险较大”，为进一步制定项目管理方案提供了依据。

关键词:锚固工程;风险评价;模糊综合评判;三标度;层次分析法;藏木水电站

Abstract:

There are many risk factors and uncertainties in the slope pre-stressed anchor engineering construction in a contract section of Zangmu hydropower station， so the project management is very difficult. The risk assessment index system was established, index weight analysis was conducted by using three-demarcation method and AHP， fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was introduced, the managers and experts’ experience was changed from qualitative to quantitative, and quantitative assessment of the project risk was made with the result of “high risk”. All of the above offered the basis for further project management scheme establishing.

Key words:anchor engineering; risk assessment; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; three-demarcation method;AHP; Zangmu hydropower station